A Review of the 2009 Buffalo Bills Draft Class

After a weekend that saw some pretty bold moves by their division rival, the New York Jets, the Buffalo Bills lone first-day trade to move up to the second round to pick Andy Levitre seems a bit lackluster. Time will tell, of course, how the brazen moves by the Jets will pan out on the field, but with a glut of wide receivers, and nine picks heading into the weekend, it seemed the Bills might be a bit bigger wheelers and dealers.

Instead, the Bills were somewhat predictable, and their typical completely unpredictable selves.

Aaron Maybin's name had been thrown out there as a possible first round pick for the Bills. So that was not too much of a surprise. But most felt that OT was one of the more glaring, pressing needs for the team, and they didn't draft a single player who was primarily an offensive tackle.

On the other hand, the Bills have a core of four really solid CBs on their roster, yet they chose to spend their first pick in the second round, and their fifth round selections on more cornerbacks? Really?

They did address the TE position by landing a fairly highly rated player in Shawn Nelson, but must not have found who they were looking for at LB, as the only player they found at that position actually played safety in college.

Well, let's take a look at each guy the Bills added, and their potential fit with this roster.

1 - DE Aaron Maybin - Penn State

At the scouting combine, defensive coordinator, Perry Fewell, hinted that the Bills might not necessarily be looking for a starter at defensive end, but more likely a pass rushing specialist. He emphasized that the NFL game is very specialized nowadays, so you can afford to spend draft picks on specialty players.

And that is just what the Bills did.

The Bills anticipate Maybin being a third down/passing situation specialist, coming in to add some pressure on the quarterback—something the Bills have been pretty bad at for a few years now. They're hoping to get 10 sacks or so out of Maybin, plus having a healthy Aaron Schobel back (plus Stroud and Williams in the middle, as well as a healthy rotation of other players on the D-line). They see Maybin as a "piece of the puzzle."

They needed pass-rushing help on the defensive line, and they are hopeful they found it in Maybin, a player they had their eyes on at the top of the draft.

Read more on Aaron Maybin at BuffaloBills.com

1 - C Eric Wood - Louisville

This one was perplexing. OT Michael Oher—a great story, and most feel a great player, at a position the Bills really need—was still available only a few picks earlier. The Bills could have moved up to get him. OT Eben Britton was still available. Lots of tackles were still available. Instead, the Bills draft a player listed as a center, which is a position they already addressed (first signing, I believe?) in free agency with Geoff Hangartner. Very strange move indeed.

Can look at this a few ways. First, Eric Wood is a very good, solid lineman. He will be a good player. We could use more good offensive linemen, to be sure. So, perhaps he was just the best option available. The Bills were definitely looking to get some more help at guard, but not necessarily center. So, it's still perplexing.

Maybe Hangartner was not their first choice as a center? Competition is always good... maybe they just wanted to make sure they had two guys they could count on to push each other at the center position? Maybe.

If you take the Bills at their word, they just really liked Wood, and they like the fact that he's both a center and a guard. At 6'4" 310, he's a pretty big fella. They intend to play him at guard (presumably left guard, vacated by the released Derrick Dockery) but really like that they can use him at center if they need to.

OK, I buy it.

My favorite part about Eric Wood (besides the fact that he's from Cincinnati, land of my genealogical roots) is the following quote:

“It’s all about flipping the switch when you go out on the field,” said Wood. “You can do things on the football field that are severely illegal on the streets. I just kind of flip that switch and try to take it to people on the field. I’m a finisher. The fun part is knocking people down and punishing the guy you’re going against. That’s the joy of football to me.”

Read more on Eric Wood at BuffaloBills.com

2 - CB Jairus Byrd - Oregon

OK, I'll admit it. This one floored me. At least as much as when they chose Donte Whitner at the 8th spot overall. The jury is still out (at least a little) on our friend Donte. Perhaps most evident in the fact that they are moving him to a different position this year, to see if that's a better fit. I'll admit it turned out better than I thought, but a CB?? With their second round pick???

If you read my previous articles you'll see that CB was specifically one of the positions that I said would be a "shocking" choice should the Bills choose to go that way. Well, they did, and I was.

Upon reading further, I discovered that they intend to use this college cornerback as a safety on their roster. That put my mind a bit more at ease as the safety position is a bit more in flux. But still, what about the left tackle?

The thing I like so far is that he is a playmaker. Had 17 INTs in his college career. The Bills are looking for playmakers, and I guess they feel they found one in Byrd.

Read more on Jairus Byrd at BuffaloBills.com

2 - OL Andy Levitre - Oregon

In their most exciting move of the draft, the Bills traded their third round pick and one of their fourth round picks to move back into the second round at pick #51 and selected... an offensive lineman! Good move!

And, he's even listed as a G/T! (That is almost like drafting a tackle!)

The Bills obviously like this guy as they gave up two picks to get him. He has decent size, 6'3" 305. (But more suited to playing guard in the NFL.)

And what I'm noticing even more is that they are really into this "two for one" concept. So far, the Bills have drafted a CB who is a S, a C who is a G, and now a T who is a G (and a T). (Perhaps they feel the more letters they can list next to a player's name, the better he will be?)

Read more on Andy Levitre at BuffaloBills.com


day TWO

4 - TE Shawn Nelson - Southern Miss

Most are rating this pick one of (if not the) best values of the 2009 draft class for the Bills. Nelson was projected to go in the second or third round, so the Bills being able to land him late in the 4th round was quite a good deal. Especially considering the vacancy they apparently had at TE by releasing last year's starter, Robert Royal.

Nelson is a pass-catching TE whom Bills scouts say should be able to help the passing game immediately. He's got good size at 6'5" 240, but needs work on his blocking. The Bills were really lacking a TE in the passing game, though, so Nelson seems like a pretty good fit. Good pick up at round four.

Read more on Shawn Nelson at BuffaloBills.com

5 - S Nic Harris - Oklahoma

And, here they go again. Now, as I said earlier, I expected the Bills would look to add a safety at some point in this draft. So, that part is not unexpected. BUT, adding their second S is pretty unexpected.

Until you remember this is the "Year of the Utility Player".

This college safety is projected to play linebacker in the NFL, and that's just what the Bills intend to do with him. Linebacker is a position of need for the Bills, so again, this seems to be a good fit for their needs. But why are they drafting these guys who have more experience at a different position than the Bills plan to use them in? Perplexing.

Harris has speed, smarts, and is a good tackler. The Bills are counting on him also being a quick study at his new position. Don't expect him to be the other starting LB opposite Kawika Mitchell, but he has enough upside to add some depth to the unit.

Read more on Nic Harris at BuffaloBills.com

6 - CB Cary Harris - Souther Cal

OK, this is getting weird. Not only are the Bills drafting players who are not experienced at their positions (hoping they'll "pick up" the position they want them to play) they are also STILL DRAFTING DEFENSIVE BACKS! I really don't understand this pick.

First of all, this Harris (unrelated to the previous Harris, as far as I know) is only 5'11" 187. Do we need another smurf on the team?? Second... he's a cornerback!!! He doesn't have great speed, there are questions about his "durability"... I honestly don't know what he has, or why we picked him when we already have Terrence McGee, Leodis McKelvin, Ashton Youboty, Reggie Corner, Drayton Florence, and now even Jairus Byrd from earlier in the draft.

“He’s an ultra competitive kid. He really paid his dues playing in a big time conference,” said Bills scout Rashaan Curry. “He started over 30 games and is a really competitive kid. He’s probably average size, but he’s of a tougher brand”

Ooohh... That's why.

Read more on Cary Harris at BuffaloBills.com

7 - DB Ellis Lankster - West Virginia

OK, at this point, it's either a really bad joke, or, the Bills staff knows something we don't know about the current group of DBs on our roster. Regardless, with their final pick of the draft, the Bills selected another defensive back. That makes four. (The Bills are calling it three, but that's because they are counting Nic Harris as a LB already. Even though he's not yet.)

Are they planning to not renew Terrence McGee's contract? Is McKelvin a bust? Youboty? I know Dick Jauron was a defensive back, but... enough already!

This selection is as baffling as the previous one in that Lankster is 5'9" 191 pounds, and they are going to ask him to cover guys like Randy Moss. Nice.

Read more on Ellis Lankster at BuffaloBills.com

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One thing that I did consistently see in all of the selections the Bills made (at least, their scouts' reports about the selections) is that they were looking for smart players, with good instincts who are also good tacklers. And, throw in a competitive mean streak as well. That seemed to be how they described most of the guys. They were not too concerned with the "measurables" as they call them. They just wanted good football players, whatever position.

If I had to grade this draft, just based on finding players to fill positions of need, I'd give it a C- at best. At best.

I hope I'm wrong, and these players turn out to be just what the Bills need. I like Wood. I didn't at first, since he's listed as a center, but I think he's a good fit. I think I like Maybin... will have to see him play at the NFL level. And I like Shawn Nelson. I think he'll help the offense right away from the sounds of it.

Overall, even though Trent Dilfer says the Bills were big draft winners, I don't see it. I don't like taking guys who didn't play the position, hoping they'll work into it. I don't like not getting another OT. I don't like taking four DBs (mostly CBs!) when you already have 5 on your roster, four who are pretty good (one unknown). Mostly, unfortunately, I don't like it.

Time will tell, of course. And, I can't wait to see it all actually play out on the field.

Rookie mini-camp this weekend, then some more OTAs... training camp will be here before you know it!

Bring it on!

Draft Weekend Is Coming: Assessing the Buffalo Bills Defense

Continuing from the previous article where we looked at the Buffalo Bills offense, position by position, where they are solid, as well as where their biggest needs are ... let's take a look at the defense.

DL
The defensive line has been much maligned over the past seasons for lack of pass rush (and previously, a lack of run stopping) and still remains one of the biggest questions on the team. This will almost definitely be a position the Bills address in the draft, especially since they did not address it in free agency.

Aaron Schobel will return after missing most of 2008 with a foot injury. He did not need surgery to repair it, so he should be ready to go when the team comes back together for training camp. He has been a solid pass rusher in the past, but production has tailed off since his Pro Bowl season in 2006. He will be 32 years old this season, so age along with returning from a fairly serious injury mean there are probably more questions surrounding Schobel than answers.

After Schobel, the Bills have a few average-to-good DEs. Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney are often maligned for not getting enough pass rush pressure, and are mostly deserving of that criticism. Chris Ellis was a third round pick last year who did have some special teams success, but perhaps wasn't as noticeable as the coaches may have liked on defense. But he figures to be a factor on the 2009 team.

Then there's a list of guys who so far have only been mediocre at best. Ryan Neill has the added advantage of being the team's long snapper, then we find Corey Mace, Bryan Copeland, and Marcus Smith. Certainly none of those guys would make the Bills' brass think, "Boy, we're set at defensive end!!"

It would be quite surprising, even shocking, if the Bills do not address the DE position specifically in the 2009 draft.

The middle of the line has a couple bright spots. First, the Bills signed big man Marcus Stroud to a nice contract extension this offseason. He is happy to be here, and definitely is a presence in the middle, even if he doesn't have the stats. He is a player the opposing team must account for. His DT partner is Kyle Williams. Williams has that "motor that never stops" and just seems to make things happen. He's still a little undersized, but he's produced pretty well for the Bills since joining the team in 2006.

After the starters there is John McCargo, who was traded to the Colts last season, then sent back! He's got talent, but doesn't seem like it's ever worked out for him. Not really counting on him for much in 2009 accordingly. Spencer Johnson is the other DT on the roster. Johnson came over in free agency last season, along with Stroud, and is a solid backup.

As with the DE position though, the Bills are definitely in need of help on the defensive line. If they draft an interior defensive lineman, it will be to add depth, and will likely mean they have given up on McCargo. (They may have already done that, as demonstrated by trading him away last season.) Either way, the Bills may choose to add two defensive lineman in this draft. DE and DT.

But, no doubt about it, there will be a defensive lineman added this weekend.

LB
The Bills were pursuing a veteran linebacker in free agency this offseason. It doesn't seem like they landed the guy they really wanted yet, which could mean that we'll see a LB among the 2009 Bills' draft class.

2007 starter, Angelo Crowell, signed as a free agent with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after missing all of 2008 with a nagging injury. He was a promising young player, and already was a loss to the Bills defense in 2008. There are a few options to fill his spot. After the other two starting LBs: Kawika Mitchell and MLB Paul Posluszny, the Bills have some solid depth in newly re-signed Keith Ellison, and Alvin Bowen who missed all of his rookie season last year with an injury. Ellison has lots of experience as a starter, and Bowen has some great athleticism and potential.

Add John DiGiorgio, Blake Costanzo, and even John Corto and Marcus Buggs to the mix as mainly special teams contributors, and you have a position where the Bills seem to be fairly solid.

So why were they courting so many LBs in free agency?

They did sign MLB Pat Thomas from the Kansas City Chiefs. Not an earth shattering announcement, but does show that there is a perceived need there. The real need is for a clear starter opposite Kawika Mitchell at OLB. Will that be Bowen? It will not likely be Ellison, unless nothing else pans out. Might the Bills spend a draft pick on another OLB? It's either that, or they may make a trade for an outside linebacker, or pick someone up after the draft weekend is over.

However it happens, I don't think the Bills are satisfied with their current roster of LBs.

DB
The Bills lost last year's starting CB Jabari Greer to the New Orleans Saints in free agency this offseason. They were prepared for such an event, and signed San Diego free agent CB Drayton Florence. Florence will be a solid depth player, as CB is perhaps one of the positions where the Bills are the most talented.

By the end of last season, the starters were Terrence McGee and rookie Leodis McKelvin. Both players are very talented. Solid starters. And, many seem to forget, before he was injured again last season, Ashton Youboty was having a very good season. He's a very solid nickel back. Add the promising play of Reggie Corner to that crew, and it would be at least a little surprising if the Bills draft a CB in 2009.

Safety is a bit different. Donte Whitner is officially moving to free safety, a position he played toward the end of last season. Bryan Scott did well at strong safety - and is a bigger guy, better fit there - so he is slated to be the starter at that position. The Bills may be shopping last year's starter FS Ko Simpson, so he may or may not return. After those three, there are some special teams standouts who also add valuable depth to the defensive backfield: George Wilson and John Wendling.

Just as with the cornerbacks, it would be a little surprising if the Bills drafted a safety. But with some shifting of positions and a possible trade... there is a possibility that the bills would add defensive backfield help, perhaps in the later rounds.

ST
Special teams remains one of the strengths of the Buffalo Bills. From the special teams coach of the year, Bobby April, to great return guys like McKelvin, McGee and Parrish (and apparently Jackson as well!) to perhaps the most consistently good player on the team, punter Brian Moorman. Kicker Rian Lindell is no slouch, either. This unit is solid, and will likely remain mostly the same. As opposed to the 2008 offseason, they did not see a massive overhaul of their players. Most of the unit are returning, which should be a very good thing for the Bills and their fans.

Final Thoughts
The Buffalo Bills still have lots of questions. There is a lot of excitement surrounding the team after the signing of future Hall of Famer Terrell Owens. The other additions should add to the success of the team, too. And, they do have the #11 pick in the draft, which could be a really good player.

Overall, if the Bills didn't trade any of their nine picks, I'd see the Bills taking three offensive linemen, two defensive lineman, a linebacker, a tight end, and two more guys at any position as special teams players. The Bills will likely make some draft day trades, however, so they won't use all nine of those picks this year.

However it all shakes out, it promises to be an exciting year of Buffalo Bills football!

Is it August yet??

Draft Weekend Is Coming: Assessing the Buffalo Bills Offense

With only two days until the clock actually starts ticking on the Buffalo Bills 2009 draft, I wanted to take a look position by position at who the 2009 Bills are shaping up to be. We have all heard the experts predicting whom they believe the Buffalo Bills will select in the draft, what holes they need to fill, and even possible trades. And they could be right. But let's look through the roster and see just where the Bills may be looking to improve.

Potential Trades
Let's get this out of the way first. There are a few players whose names are being mentioned as possible draft day trade fodder. Roscoe Parrish is a big one. When Terrell Owens joined the club, there was a possibility that Parrish was on the outside of the bubble looking in. While he is incredibly productive on special teams (league-leader in punt return average in 2007, second in 2008) and consistently provides good field position for the offense, his production on offense hasn't been what the Bills had hoped. (It's interesting to note, by the way, that #1 on the list for average yards per punt return was Buffalo's Fred Jackson with 16.6 yards/return as compared to Roscoe's 15.3/return. He did that on only a third of the returns that Parrish had, however.)

So, the Bills could potentially move Parrish, but I would think if they did it would be for a pretty good price. He may be near the edge of the bubble as a WR for this team, but I recall a Wall of Fame Buffalo Bill WR who consistently made the team for his contributions on special teams, despite being at the edge of the bubble for his offensive production...

Another player named in possible trades is Ko Simpson, who has lost his starting FS job to the recently-shifted SS Donte Whitner. Simpson is a good player, but was a bit small for the defensive scheme the Bills want to run.

And of course, we all know that Buffalo's prima donna OT, Jason Peters, was traded for three draft picks from the Philadelphia Eagles. The picks were not as high as I thought they might get for a "two-time Pro Bowler", but in my estimation, it's a good move. The Bills can use the two picks this year to add depth, or potentially package them to make a move on draft day.

It might be an interesting weekend just in the wheeling and dealing alone!

QB
J.P. Losman is finally not part of the equation at QB for the Bills, so they went out and signed Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bengals' starter last season (when Carson Palmer was injured most of the season). Interesting move, but perhaps Fitzpatrick is a similar player to Edwards, so there is consistency there should Edwards go down with an injury. I had thought they would add a QB with more experience, as there were many out there, but Fitzpatrick it is.

Gibran Hamdan will be returning, and Matt Baker is still on the roster somewhere. Will the Bills pursue a QB in the draft? Probably not. But I do still like Drew Willy, quarterback of the University at Buffalo Bulls in 2008. Would be a cool local story, and he definitely has skills. The Bills wouldn't take him till very late, and I'd imagine he'd be gone before that.

RB
Marshawn Lynch is apparently appealing his three-week suspension, but the Bills are counting on not having their star running back for the first part of the season. They made a move to ensure some stability there by finally signing the veteran RB they have been seeking since the start of Free Agency. Being turned down by Fred Taylor and Kevin Jones (likely among other candidates) they finally were able to procure the services of Dominic Rhodes. Rhodes will probably occupy the third spot on the depth chart, but will get lots more playing time in the absence of Lynch to start the season.

Fred Jackson is also a bit of a question as he is unhappy with his contract negotiations. He is restricted free agent, I believe, and they are still crunching numbers to get him a new contract. The Bills need to pay the man. He has turned into a super reliable compliment to Lynch, and well, they just need to pay their players!

Assuming Jackson is signed and happy, the Bills are really strong at RB. Marshawn Lynch (Pro Bowler last season, actually, leading rusher in the Pro Bowl, too!) and Fred Jackson, and now Dominic Rhodes... that's a pretty good trio. Add the potential Xavier Omon has (but has not shown at the NFL level as of yet) and they even have the hard working Bruce Hall on their roster. I'd be surprised to see the Bills select a RB in the draft at all, but if they did, it would be late.

WR
As I mentioned above, the Bills are chock full at this position. Lee Evans signed a big contract extension last year. Terrell Owens, while only here for a year, well, we know what he is capable of. That's quite a tandem already. Add in Josh Reed back in the slot where he belongs, and he's likely even better at being "Mr. First Down", as we like to call him.

Then you have the aforementioned Roscoe Parrish, with his explosive possibilities, and I haven't even mentioned James Hardy and Steve Johnson! Hardy, the Bills second-round pick in 2008, is returning from an injury and with a year of NFL experience—he has the tools—should be a contributor on this team. Johnson actually produced more than Hardy last year, so don't count him out of the mix.

The Bills also have Justin Jenkins, Felton Huggins and CJ Hawthorne on the roster. Jenkins and Huggins are big contributors on special teams coverage units, and decent WRs.

Obviously, not all of these guys will be here when the roster is trimmed down to the final 53. You can't keep nine receivers on a team. The likely candidates would seem to be the last two I mentioned, but Bobby April may say otherwise. That really lends credence to the Parrish trade rumors.

It will be shocking if the Bills add a WR on draft weekend. I'll go ahead and say right now... they will not!

TE
For a few years now, Bills fans have been complaining about the tight end position on their team. Perhaps the last player we had at this position that really made any impact was Jay Riemersma, and he played with Doug Flutie... so it's been a while.

The Bills released last year's starting TE Robert Royal just as the free agency period opened, so that leaves three TEs on the roster: Derek Schouman, Derek Fine, and (Derek) Jonathan Stupar. (He should be named Derek, apparently...) Fine showed some promise last year, and Shouman is a "fine" special teamer, so those guys will make the roster, but are they impact players? Do they make a difference to this offense?

I don't know anything about Stupar, so we'll just assume he's roster depth at this point, that may not even make the team?

The Bills reportedly tried to make a deal for future Hall of Fame TE Tony Gonzalez, but that fell through, with reports saying he just didn't want to come to Buffalo. His loss.

Now that they have also signed T.O. - who is a bigger WR - do they really need a big play-making TE? Some argue that T.O. was more successful in Dallas because of the great play of Dallas TE Jason Whitten. Another great player can't hurt, but who's to say that by adding T.O. to the offensive mix, you don't automatically free up one of the Dereks to make chain-moving plays across the middle? Defenses have to already cover Evans, Owens, Reed, Lynch, Jackson... that may leave these TEs more open than they have been in the past?

Still, I would not be surprised to see the Bills take a TE in this year's draft. I don't think it's as big a need as some (who think we should spend our #11 pick on a TE) but it couldn't hurt.

OL
This is probably the biggest question mark on the team. Most people are now focusing on the trade of Peters, and the hole that leaves at what is considered the most important spot on the line, LT. But don't forget, the Bills released last year's starting LG, Derrick Dockery, just before free agency began, and they have not attempted to re-sign either of their centers from last year, Melvin Fowler and Duke Preston. That means the entire left side of the line will be different at the start of the 2009 season.

The Bills did re-sign OT Kirk Chambers. They also brought in C Geoff Hangartner from Carolina, and OL Seth McKinney from Cleveland. Not the most sought-after guys, but the Bills are happy with Hangartner for sure.

What does that mean for the whole O-line? At the end of last season, the line left to right was: Jason Peters, Derrick Dockery, Duke Preston, Brad Butler, Langston Walker. Now it looks as though it might be: Langston Walker/Kirk Chambers, Kirk Chambers/Demetrius Bell, Geoff Hangartner, Brad Butler, Demetrius Bell/Kirk Chambers. The only player who remains the same is RG Brad Butler. Every other position has a new player in it. Every one.

That's not good. There is no doubt the Bills need a larger pool of guys to select from not only for the starters on this unit, but also depth players. This is definitely a position the Bills will address in the draft, and maybe even with the top pick at #11. There are some great players available. Michael Oher, Andre Smith (No, not Big Dre from the BBR!) are two names at the top. But so far every player who has greatness also seems to have some "baggage".

I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills go after one of the "big name" OLs, but I'd look for them to add up to 3 guys with their middle to high round picks. They need lots of help at this position, so it may be a "boring" draft of just picking the big, no-name guys. (Who you really need on your team if you want to win!)

Stay Tuned...
That covers the offensive side of the ball, but there's a whole other side of the team that the Bills will definitely be addressing. In fact, I'd say we'll see more defensive players selected (other than offensive linemen, really) in the 2009 draft than offensive players.

Will post the remainder of the article tomorrow, the state of the Bills defense.

A Game of Inches

Football is a game of inches. Inches turn into feet and feet turn into yards. And yards, of course, turn into what feels like miles.

But it all starts with inches.

Looking back on the Buffalo Bills mid-season slump, it’s easy to see how Bills fans can feel like this team is just plain awful. The turnover difference alone was abysmal. Minus 11 over the six game stretch where they were 1-5. But add to that the apparent ineptitude of the run game, as well as the general lack of production from the offense... and you have some sizable “inches”.

The problem is, from a slightly different perspective, you can see how it really is about the inches.

Take for example, the game against the Jets. If all things were equal - meaning Trent gets injured on play number three of the Cards game, and the Bills are stunned by the Fish, and they remain befuddled by Belichick’s gameplans, and they even lose a very winnable game to the hapless Browns - winning just one game in which they were very competitive, they would be in a tie for first place in the AFC East, instead of two games out. Just by winning that one game.

Ugh.

Remember that game? The Bills had the ball for fifteen straight minutes. Game minutes, not clock minutes. They moved into the red zone once and, thanks to good pressure from the Jets and a receiver slipping, the ball went the other way for seven points. The next time, thanks to a couple very questionable spots, the Bills could not get a first down deep in the Jets territory. Two long drives, zero points.

Add to that the crazy play by Leon Washington to step out of bounds and then touch the ball that was still IN BOUNDS in order to get the Jets the ball at the 40 rather than inside their own 10. Or, the Bills inability to stop the Jets on the final drive of the 4th quarter where they took off a big chunk of time and posted three more points. (Credit the Jets on that one.)

But for a few key plays, the Bills could have won that game, and been in a much different position than they find themselves in now.

Now they are 0-3 in their division. If they have any hopes of advancing to the playoffs, they will need to win the rest of the games they play in the AFC East. At the New York Jets, “home” against the Dolphins (in Toronto), and then home against the Patriots in the final week of the season. None of those will be easy, but the Bills certainly can compete in each of those games.

If we’re talking inches, don’t forget that the Bills were stunned by Miami’s Ted Ginn Jr. who had the game of his life when they last met. Even with Ginn’s stunning performance, the Bills had clawed back to take a 16-7 lead in the third quarter. But one player - Josh Reed - went down with a serious injury, and the offense began to sputter. One player was hobbled by an injury - Terrance McGee - and that deficiency was exploited... greatly.

But for a few different plays, a different player, a few different calls, an NFL season can look very, very different altogether. Just ask the San Diego Chargers. Losers of four games in the final 26 seconds of those games... they are a pitiful 4-7 this season, but could very well be 8-3. That’s a very big difference.

Every game in the NFL is critical. Wins and losses matter more in football than in any other sport I can think of. With only 16 games per season, and only 6 games total against the other teams in your division, it’s almost essential you win every game! The Bills have been sloppy at points (Miami, Cleveland) and unlucky in others (Arizona, NY Jets) and now they are stuck with a 6-5 record, and still on the outside edge of the proverbial playoff bubble.

Every year, players and fans can look back at “what might have been” but in the end, that really never helps. The Jets game is over, and the Bills lost. The difference is first to last place, from just one game, but you can’t get it back. Now the Bills can only look forward, and hope to win every game they play. 10-6 may not be good enough to make the playoffs this year.

Actually, 11-5 might miss the playoffs!

If the Bills won all the rest of their games - finishing 11-5 - the Jets would lose one, to the Bills, but could win the rest of theirs, to finish 12-4. The Patriots would only be able to finish 11-5, by virtue of of a loss to the Bills, and the Fins could only finish 9-7, again, after a loss to the Bills, and assuming they lose to the Jets in week 17. What could keep the Bills out of the playoffs is if Indy and Baltimore also win the rest of their games, to both go 12-4 and grab the two wild card spots! What a crazy scenario that is!

A better scenario for Bills fans would be for the Jets to lose to the Dolphins, and finish 11-5 at best, and then the Bills would win the division based on the better conference record (would be 8-4). That would send the Bills to the playoffs for the first time since 1999!

But any way you slice it, thanks to this game of inches... the Bills need help. They can’t make the playoffs on their own. They have to do their share (beating all three division opponents at least, and probably Denver, too, if not all five games) but even if they can accomplish that, they won’t be in the playoffs unless other teams falter.

How does it always end up this way?

Somehow, the Bills need to find a way to get on the other side of the ruler. We’re only talking a matter of inches.

Open Letter to the Buffalo Bills

To Whom It May Concern
Re: The recent Bills slump
From: A concerned Bills Fan

A recent series of events has led me to compose this letter to you, as it seems you may be in need of some outside guidance. I have been a fan and long-time supporter of your organization, dating back a couple decades now, and though I concede that you have more knowledge and experience in the proverbial "Xs" and "Os" of your profession, I do have a few recommendations that might be worth your consideration, and perhaps would improve the results of your weekly efforts.

First, congratulations on the fantastic beginning to this season. 4-0 is nothing to sneeze at, nor is 5-1 following a superb, complete victory over a very fine football team in the San Diego Chargers. In the first six games, and perhaps that game in particular, what I saw as an outside onlooker seemed to be a never-say-die attitude, and a strong desire (and confidence) on every play and on every series and in every quarter. You looked like winners.

The same can not be said of the past two games.

Every team experiences "slumps." That is the nature of sport. One team wins, and another loses. The difference between the two is minor in detail, but feels much more "major" on the scoreboard and in the standings. Lately, besides poor execution on a handful of plays (which may or may not have impacted the final score of those games) there has been - to me - a significant shift in attitude.

Mind you, I am not talking about work-ethic or effort put forth on the field each play. I am only talking about the mindset, the "aura"... that apparent confidence and swagger that this team had early in the 2008 season that they were not only good enough to win, and that they could win, but that they were going to win. After a sloppy start in Miami (coupled with a tremendous start by their team) your team - the Bills - seemed to be hesitant, tentative, pushing, and ... playing not to lose.

Sometimes, in a slump, no matter how hard you try not to lose, you still lose. In hockey, you can generate all the chances you used to have, but they ring off the goal post, or the goalie stands on his head to make a save he wouldn't normally make. In baseball, your best hitters grip the bat a little tighter, and end up with stats worse than the guys who are usually at the bottom of your stat sheet. In basketball, even for your best player, the hoop can seemingly shrink to one size smaller than the ball itself.

But every team breaks out of a slump. It usually takes one thing going your way. I honestly thought it might be that ill-advised pass by Brett Favre yesterday. After so many things not going your way, I thought that might turn it around. But, giving credit to them, they put together a drive that finished off the game.

Slumps are very difficult to work yourself out of. Often, that makes it worse. In playing to break out of the slump (read: to not lose) your game gets tighter, your attitude shifts to a negative rather than a confident, positive swagger... and in tightening up, you lose.

This week, please remember that you are basically the same team that started this season. Every team deals with injuries, bad calls (both by your staff and the officiating crew) and other "breaks" that eventually balance out. But you can only control yourself. And mainly, you can only control your attitude. That attitude needs to be shifted back to the quiet confidence that you can - and will - win the game.

We're back to one game at a time (not three division games, not five crucial conference games, just the game in front of you). There is a big game in six days and you all know you can win it. At least, you used to know that.

This week, work on fundamentals to be sure. Work hard in practice and work to correct mistakes from the past two games. Come up with a great game plan that uses your strengths and exploits their weaknesses. Those things all must be done. But most of all, as a team, remember that you can - and will - win the game when you take the field.

Next chance, 1:00pm on Sunday, November 9th.

Mr. First Down

Last week, as the Bills had (somewhat unimpressively) clawed their way to a 16-7 lead in Miami against a charged-up divisional opponent looking to topple the division leaders, they may have discovered just how much #82 brings to the table.

Over the years, Josh Reed has been much-maligned for his under production. After all, he was the Fred Biletnikoff award winner in 2001. When you are proclaimed the nation's top receiver coming out of college, certainly much is expected.

But not much was seen. Bills fans did not see the numbers you might expect from such an award winner. In fact, the number that might have stood out the most was the number of times he dropped passes. "Don't throw it to Reed," shouted Bills' faithful, "he'll drop it!!!"

And indeed he did.

Still, #82 persisted on the Buffalo Bills roster. Bills coaches would consistently laud his superior blocking skills. He was an assett to the team's run game. (But, shouldn't a receiver be an asset to the passing game?) They would also say he is a great route runner. (OK, that's a plus for a receiver, but then you have to also catch the ball!!!) Year after year, training camp would come and go and somehow, someway, Josh Reed continued to make the final roster.

But what happened over the last couple years has definitely swung the balance of many Bills fans allegiance in Reed's favor.

Reed has become (a name I have dubbed him on the Buffalo Bills Review), Mr. First Down.

When the Bills need a clutch catch, Reed makes it. Reed is the one who gets open, makes the tough grab, fights off the tackles, and gets just enough yards for the first down. First, he often runs routes that get him open beyond the first down markers - something many receivers do not seem to understand. Second, he makes the catch - something he did not seem to previously understand. And third, he often gains tough yards after the catch to ensure he gets the first down.

Perhaps we saw his importance to the Bills offense somewhat amplified last week when, in the second half after the team lost him to an injury, the offense was seemingly incapable of sustaining drives. Thinking back to games earlier this season, many of the 4th quarter come from behind victories involved multiple catches by Mr. First Down to keep the chains moving.

Reed is not a big play (meaning long yardage) receiver. He doesn't score many touchdowns. But he is an essential part of the Bills offense, and when he misses any time it will take a big effort from his replacements to fill his shoes. I'm not certain James Hardy, Justin Jenkins and all three tight ends can really do that.

They'll get a chance to give it a try this week. Reed has not practiced this week (in fact, he was wearing an immobilizer boot on the ankle with the strained achilles) and looks very doubtful for the game Sunday.

The once-maligned, under-achieving receiver has become an essential (and greatly missed) piece of the Buffalo Bills offense. Nice job, Josh. You are forever in the mind of this Bills fan... the original...

Mr. First Down.

A Good QB Changes Everything

Following two straight fourth-quarter comebacks, the Buffalo Bills are alone atop the AFC East. All by themselves. That has not happened since week 13 of the 1996 NFL season. That is a long time.

We've heard the stats. The Bills are off to their fastest start since 1992. Not since that season has a Bills team started 3-0. And this week with the Bills facing the team who is arguably off to the worst start of all 32 NFL teams in 2008, most consider it a foregone conclusion that the Bills will be 4-0.

The last time the Bills started a season 4-0 was also 1992. Go back another year to find the last time a Bills team started the season with a 5-0 record. They lost their sixth game that year - the year after "Wide Right" - but went on to amass a 10-1 record, cruising to the AFC East crown and eventually, the AFC title.

But let's go back just a couple years. 1988. The Bills were coming out of relative obscurity. Back to back 2-14 seasons, followed by a 4-12 season (which saw the arrival of new - and equally obscure - head coach, Marv Levy) followed by a meager 7-8 season. They had not made the playoffs for six straight seasons, but there seemed to be reason for hope.

A very talented young team was being put together. Largely around stars like Jim Kelly, Bruce Smith, and even Andre Reed (from tiny Kutztown State university) and a rookie RB from Oklahoma State, Thurman Thomas. A blockbuster trade had brought LB Cornelius Bennett to town, inspiring more hope from the Buffalo faithful. There was certainly potential...

But it had been so long since there had been a real winner in Buffalo.

All of a sudden though, the wins began coming. 1-0. 2-0. 3-0. People began wondering about this "surprising" team from Buffalo. Robb Riddick kept jumping over the pile for a goal-line TD. Butch Rolle continued to fool everyone as Kelly would fake the handoff and toss the ball to a wide open (little used) TE. (Didn't they watch the film? If Butch was on the field, he was going to get the TD!) A pretty solid offensive line, a QB who was showing he could will his team to win, a budding receiving star, and a scrappy defense - even a kicker who never missed. (32-33 FGs on the season, including an OT game winner that gave the Bills their first AFC East title in many long years.)

This team came out of nowhere to go 11-1, and grab the AFC East from their other four unsuspecting division rivals. And the rest of the NFL.

Flash forward to 2008.

This young, confident Bills team, being built around a young QB, a scrappy defense, a few solid veteran additions, a talented young RB - and even a kicker who never misses - has gotten out of the gates quickly. 1-0 after a blowout. 2-0 with a tough win on the road against a playoff contender. 3-0 following a sloppy performance, turned gutsy comeback. It looks like the sky is the limit for this young team, and it almost looks like we're 20 years in the past... ready to do it all again!

And the thing that gives me more confidence about that is watching our QB manage his offense.

If you take a look around our division - which the Bills currently lead by one game - who else would you rather have at QB in the crunch? Now that Tom Brady is gone, the starting four AFC East QBs are: Edwards, Brett Favre, Chad Pennington, and Matt Cassel. Cassel has looked quite pedestrian, Favre has seemed at best out of step, and Pennington is... Pennington.

Edwards on the other hand has been incredibly accurate, completing 67% of his passes - and much higher in the 4th quarters of all three games. In the first game, late in the third quarter, Edwards sealed the victory with a 30 yard bullet to TE Robert Royal to quickly buoy the Bills from a 10 pt lead to a 24 point lead, and victory. In game number two, Edwards rallied a very tired and heat-exhausted Bills team to a 4 point victory from 6 points down on the road against a team who never loses when leading at home heading into the 4th quarter.

And last week, Edwards looked even more determined and capable as the Bills' field general, picking apart the Raiders secondary in the 4th quarter, leading the Bills to score 17 points - even after the defense gave up a disheartening 84 yard TD catch and run by Johnnie Lee Higgins - giving the Bills the one-point victory at the final whistle.

Folks, what we have in Buffalo is a winning QB.

Cassel is not (yet) a winner. Favre has been, but is not looking like the Favre we have seen the past 16 NFL seasons. Pennington has never been a real winner. Edwards is looking like he is. And he's only started 12 NFL games! He is now 8-4 as a starter, and perhaps his last three games have been his most impressive.

When Tom Brady went down, I said it was way too early to change your AFC East predictions based solely on the loss of one player. It is a team game. BUT... after Miami's 38-13 drubbing of the Pats last week, and after two straight 4th quarter come-from-behind victories lead by Edwards, I am reconsidering. It still feels too early, but with a favorable schedule, and a QB who seems to have the confidence and the ability to rally his team to victory (and the apparent lack of that from the rest of the AFC East) I am truly beginning to believe.

I have said it many times actually. I believe this year is going to be much like that 1988 season. The Bills take most of the NFL world by surprise, and just keep winning. All the way to the AFC East title. Maybe - like 20 years ago - all the way to the AFC Championship game.

Maybe beyond.

We can't know. That is a long way away. It is a long season. But for now, it's fun to be in this Bills fan time warp. It was a pretty fun 6 years from 1988-1994. Maybe this time around, the Bills can finish it off with a big W. The biggest W this franchise has ever posted.

I don't think it will happen in 2008... but, you just never know.

Bring on the Rams, and let's keep this thing rolling!

Most statistical data was obtained from pro-football-reference.com. Some current stats also found at nfl.com.

Instant Favorites

The Buffalo Bills find themselves in a very interesting position. After only one week of the 2008 NFL season, they are now being tagged by many as the favorite to win the AFC East division crown, by virtue of Tom Brady's quick and unexpected exit.

Just a week ago, most fans would give the Bills a bit of credit, putting them at second place in a division that clearly belonged to the Patriots. That was a decent acknowledgment of the Bills' potential, but other than me, I can't remember anyone saying (publicly) that the Bills even had a chance at the division title. Some have even said that just by adding Favre, the Jets are in the race, and could finish the season in that far away, distant - almost consolation - second place spot.

While, as a Bills fan, I appreciate the collective nod that the media pundits are giving us (as an aside... can we all PLEASE agree that the word is pundit, not PUNDANT or PUNDINT?!!) I would also like to throw out this bit of rational caution.

One man does not a football team make.

Yes, Brady is something like 100-27 in his ridiculously (perhaps illegitimate... video gate?) career as a starter for the Pats. And yes, he has led them to many Super Bowls and division and conference titles. Definitely a key piece of the puzzle. But I think we might want to slow down here a bit before just handing the Bills the title. There is still a lot to prove on their end.

The other piece of this is that the Bills just shellacked the Seahawks, 34-10, in their opener. It was close for a while, but then the wheels fell off in the third quarter for the Seahawks. (Thanks in large part to good play-calling, and execution, from the Bills.) They really looked great on all sides of the ball. Defense and special teams were stellar, and after a slow start offensively, Edwards and gang picked it up and scored 20 points themselves.

So the Bills looked great against one of the top NFC teams (presumably so) and their nemesis, Tom Brady, is now out for the year. (My bold prediction that the Bills would beat the Pats twice this year is looking a little less bold...) And now the Bills are the "favorites".

All I gotta say is, back to back 7-9 seasons... Dick Jauron has only had one winning season ever... lots of young players... unproven should be the banner over the tunnel entrance to the stadium for the Bills. There are just too many questions to slap them up there at the top.

But I must admit it's kind of fun, as a long-time Bills fan. Nice to see our team getting some respect again.

They started to earn it this week against Seattle, and it continues next week in Jacksonville. That's going to be a stiffer test for our run defense, as well as our offense. Jags will be hungry, and we are "UNPROVEN."

Time to start proving.

The Fine Line Between Winning and Losing

Last season the Buffalo Bills finished with a losing record. Seven wins, nine losses. For the second year in a row. Everyone wants to win, and no one wants to lose, but obviously the 2007 version of the Buffalo Bills were cut some slack due to a ridiculously inordinate amount of injuries. Many of those injuries were season-ending.

There is hope in Buffalo this season. Hope for a winning season. Hope for a return to the playoffs after nearly a decade-long absence. Hope for continued success over the next several years. There is a strong, young nucleus of high-character, high-talent (at least, potential) guys. It would seem the sky is the limit.

But there is one thing that could turn a potential winning season into another 7-9 season. The injury bug.

In a strange, seemingly rash turn of events, LB Angelo Crowell will undergo knee surgery to correct a problem that has bothered him the past couple years. He was supposed to be out at least two to four weeks, but the Bills subsequently placed him on the injured reserve list. Now he is gone for the season.

No one is quite sure why he would wait until three days before the first game of the year, but some speculate it could have something to do with his contract expiring after the 2008 season. It is possible that his knee was just bothering him and he wanted to fix it. The apparent haste of the moves by both Crowell and the Bills would suggest there is more here than just a sore knee.

In addition to Crowell's absence, LB Paul Posluszny will possibly not be 100% for this game as he sustained an injury in Wednesday's practice. He's planning on playing, and coach Jauron also confirmed that.

So for week one, so far that's two starters down. And don't forget starting QB Trent Edwards is returning to action for the first time since injuring his leg in training camp. Edwards already has a reputation for being injury-prone, and he may not quite be 100% either.

Oh yeah, and there's the thing with Jason Peters...

There is always so much potential as you go into a new season. It's a blank slate, and you have the team assembled that you think will get the job done. But there are so many factors that can change that, and as Bills fans saw last season, the injury bug can bite hard.

I am admittedly a bit scared at the developments of today. Crowell was going to be a big part of our defense. We have good depth, but how many injuries can this up-and-coming team sustain before they cross that fine line between winning and losing? When does this team with so much potential go back to mediocre, and another season of around 500 football?

No one can say, but today definitely reminded me that there are no guarantees. Let's hope the Bills have gotten all of the injuries out of their system for 2008.

Buffalo Bills: The Real Deal

OK folks, before you think I've gone off the deep end, I am completely aware that the three "games" we have seen our Bills play in this fledgling 2008 season have all been pre-season games. I realize that not only do we not see the best players and play books that our team has, we also see more (or less) of the same from the opponent. It's really very hard to make any sort of judgments about a team from pre-season.

But I don't believe that's what I am doing.

I believe I have said for quite a while now that between the massive pruning that Jauron and Co. have done since the start of their tenure with the Bills, to the great - and key - additions they have made through mainly drafts, and a few very good free agent signings...

This really could be the Bills year!

The pre-season contests we have seen have simply confirmed what I have been seeing through flashes in recent years, reading in various articles and on-site reports, and seen through OTAs and training camp. (Save, of course, the lackluster Washington game where the Bills did not look like they got the memo that it was a live game.)

Tonight the Bills disposed of the Indianapolis Colts (first game in their brand new stadium) fairly easily, posting a 20-7 victory. The end result is almost meaningless in pre-season contests, but the way they got there is not.

Consider that the Bills were 10 of 18 on third down conversion. TEN of EIGHTEEN. First, they got eighteen chances to convert on third downs, that's rather impressive for a notoriously anemic Bills offense. But then, they converted on ten of them! And some were long conversions! The Bills kept drives alive (especially the first team guys, who really included several second team guys - including the QB) and they finished drives, scoring points on drives of 13 and 18 plays in the first half.

Also, this Bills defense is not only talented, but aggressive. The first play of the game for the Colts ended in a big sack by multiple Bills defenders. And they kept coming. That forced several turnovers from a usually sure-handed Colts offense.

On offense, defense, and special teams ... this Bills team has so many pieces in place. They will be a challenge for any team who plays them this year.

Add to the great plays by the players the refreshingly innovative play calling, and this team really stands a chance to have a much better than average year - perhaps culminating in long-awaited return to the playoffs.

Again, it's just pre-season. And things are not all sunshine and lollipops for the Bills. Langston Walker left the game in the second quarter with an injury to his left forearm. X-Rays at half-time were negative, but more will be known on that injury in the days to come. That left the Bills with 7th round draft pick, Demetrius Bell to occupy arguably the most important position on the offensive line. Not good.

Starting QB Trent Edwards could have benefitted greatly from playing in this game with the starting unit for an entire half. The third game of the pre-season is often looked on as the "dress rehearsal" for the regular season, but Edwards' thigh injury was not healed enough for the Bills to take the chance of having him play on it.

But all that did was allow the backups to shine.

Turk Schonert's offense definitely utilizes the strengths of these players much more effectively. The offense spread the field more, opening great running lanes for Lynch and Jackson. Josh Reed looked like a star, making many grabs in the opening quarter. Even J.P. Losman looked more than competent under center. Xavier Omon had a decent showing as well.

One thing that stands out on this Bills team is that there is a decent amount of depth. Some is still a bit raw, but there are definitely second and third-stringers who will be making a contribution to the success of the team this season. Definitely.

Jason who?

There is one more pre-season contest to play. That will determine the last several slots on the 53-man roster. Should really be interesting to see who makes the cut this year.

Whoever they will be, the 53 men who will represent the Bills this year will have the best chance of making the playoffs -and doing well in the playoffs - that a Buffalo team has had in a very, very long time.

J.P. = Just Problems?

What is it with the initials J.P.? The Bills currently have two players with those initials on their roster, and in many ways, both are "Just Problems".

The obvious problem is Jason Peters. Peters managed to go for the entirety of training camp without reporting, but, perhaps even worse, not communicating with the Bills. (At least, according to all public reports.) I really think there must be more to the story than we know, because how can any intelligent negotiator think that this is a good strategy? Peters is under contract (for three more years!) and has, in my opinion, tossed any leverage he had right out the window by not showing that he is committed to the Buffalo Bills team and organization.

Bad move #1 by J.P.

Now there is another Bills player who is more commonly known by the initials, J.P. That of course is our beloved (now backup) quarterback, Jonathan Paul Losman. Losman decided to speak to the press following Tuesday night's practice this week, which may have been a mistake. He had been publicly silent since after the Jacksonville game last season (his last as a starter) and apparently, judging by his comments Tuesday night, that was a wise move.

The full-bearded QB was pretty forthright in his comments, for which he should be commended, but unfortunately, those comments revealed the real problem with this J.P. - he is not (at least yet) a "professional" athlete.

What we heard from QB J.P. was that he is doing the team a favor by being here, and practicing hard. We heard that it's "hard to get motivated" (apparently because he's not the starter) and that he has to think "overall big picture." It is obvious from his comments that he does not plan to be with the Bills next season. (And realistically, I don't think the Bills plan for to be here either.)

The professional athlete would not find it difficult to be motivated. The motivation should not come from some given or earned position, but rather just to do your best, and contribute to the team. There's no need for any other motivation. The man is being paid millions of dollars to be ever-ready to jump in and lead the team. He is still (as of now) the second quarterback on the team, which is actually a very important position, both in practice and in the game should there be an injury to Edwards.

A professional athlete is motivated by his own drive to be the best he can be. Period.

Bad move #2 by J.P.

Message to all Bills bearing the initials J.P.:
Football is a TEAM game. You are not the team, nor are you even the focus of the team. The team will go on without you. Your apparent lack of understanding may be jeopardizing any career you hoped to have in the NFL.

I really hope that the Bills do not have to rely on the QB J.P. this season for any length of time. His comments betrayed his "overall" attitude. And that's unfortunate. I really do like the kid. I think he is also really talented. But he doesn't get it.

I am also (mayeb, was also) a fan of our LT J.P. He is a great story, seems like a good kid, and I was rooting for him. I guess my sub-conscious deadline was the end of training camp. Now that it has passed with seemingly no effort on the part of Peters at all to honor his contract and put the pressure on the Bills to make the next (first) move... I have lost tons, or possibly all respect for him. I am afraid that might be true of the Bills, too.

I am not certain what effect the players named J.P. will have on this 2008 Bills team, but I would caution the front office to think twice in the future about drafting or signing any players bearing those initials.

They do seem to stand for, "Just Problems."

Are The Bills Setting Their Sights Too Low?

We are under a week from the start of training camp, and there is a buzz around Bills land. It is the typical late-July buzz, but this year the din seems to be a bit louder. Players are excited, coaches are excited, and fans are excited. Even some of the media is starting to catch on, calling this Bills team a possible "Sleeper" in the 2008 season.

And for good reason, as I have mentioned before in parts 1 and 2 of my pre-pre-season preview of the 2008 Bills.

But something has been bothering me almost every time I hear any player talk about this upcoming season. Sure there is great optimism, and there are many good reasons to believe (returning players, new players, system is established, good talent level on this team, good depth) ... but what are they believing in?

"I want to be the best I can be and I want to take this team to the playoffs and I want to win some football games," said QB Trent Edwards.

Did you see it? What is it that Trent (and seemingly every other Buffalo Bill) wants from this season?

To make the playoffs.

Granted, when a franchise has not attained that level in nine seasons, that seems a respectable goal. But is it enough? Is it like in karate (I don't really know what I'm saying here) where you try to break a board, you have to envision your hand going through the board, not to the board. If the Bills dream of only the playoffs, might they only get that far... and miss the chance to advance in the post season?

To me, it seems they are not thinking far enough ahead. I have heard the popular sports adage, "Cross one river at a time." We often heard it coming from the mouth of our beloved Marv Levy. And I do understand that thinking also. But really, is it enough to only want to make the playoffs? Don't we want to at least win a playoff game? Shouldn't we be thinking we have as much right to that Lombardi Trophy as the other 31 teams? Maybe more??

As we enter training camp, I'd like to see the Bills language change slightly. It may be only a word, but I think it might be important. Once we see the players start thinking they really can win, they really are good... perhaps they will start to talk like they believe that too, and maybe that will bring about a change not only in language and thinking, but on the football field as well.

On The Horizon for Buffalo

Thanks to nearly perfect attendance, and excellent performance in the practices, the OTAs (Optional Team Activities) and the mandatory minicamp have come to a close one day early. Coach Jauron decided to forego the final day of the minicamp, stating both of those reasons.

And indeed, the Bills have had some excellent attendance and performance on the field. The offense has been implementing lots of new looks, and working a lot on red-zone plays. The defense has also been making some stellar plays and trying to keep in "football shape".

Things are very promising at One Bills Drive!

But then there are the dark clouds.

In the past couple weeks, legal troubles and contract squabbles have darkened the otherwise very positive vibe emanating from the Bills headquarters. You've read it here, the Bills have a lot of pieces in place for a very good season in 2008. Unfortunately, at least two players (probably more) have been in the news in the wrong way lately.

Lynch is still being somewhat evasive in his dealings with the authorities regarding the hit-and-run incident involving his vehicle. A grand jury is being assembled. Players are being subpoenaed. It's just not what a team wants to be in the news for. Not at all.

Jason Peters, the Bills Pro Bowl LT, wants more money. Apparently, though there are 3 years left on his contract, he'd rather make more money right now... so he did not attend any of the OTAs or the mandatory minicamp. He will be fined at least $10,000 by the NFL. Obviously the Bills would like Peters to have joined the team for the OTAs and the minicamp, but most of the players feel he will be fine once he reports to training camp. QB Trent Edwards thinks Peters can just show up for week one of the regular season and pick up where he left off. That might be a stretch.

Not too long ago, rookie WR James Hardy was also in the news in a negative light. He was rumored to have brandished a handgun in an argument with his father. Both deny the incident occurred as alleged. But, the message boards were buzzing, and the "reputation" Hardy already brings to the Bills as a bit of "trouble" was perpetuated, whether the claims were well-founded or not.

All this obviously brings up the question of character. People are beginning to wonder if this Bills team is a squeaky clean as your typical Dick Jauron team. From some appearances, it is not. Lynch and Hardy are expected to be big contributors to the Bills this season, but how can they if they are in trouble with the law? Peters and Evans, two Pro Bowl players, and critical pieces of the Bills offense, are working on re-negotiating contracts. (Evans is doing so much more peaceably, and with some more apparent progress.)

The waters are a bit troubled at One Bills Drive.

Overall, coming off the off-season workouts... the Bills are in good shape. Personally, I believe the Marshawn Lynch event (which is rumored to also involve rookies James Hardy and Steve Johnson, and second year player Christian Gaddis) will eventually go away. The alleged infraction is a misdemeanor, and for first time offenders generally does not carry stiff penalties. Peters will be signed. Evans will be signed.

But are these incidents "signs" of things to come? We can hope not.

Football starts in earnest at the end of next month. We're only a handful of weeks away now. The pads will be on, football will be in the air. Hopefully it will be a bit "cleaner", more peaceful air.

The Team The Bills Will Field - Part Two

After an overview of the Bills offense yesterday, we turn our attention to the revamped Bills defense. It was actually the defense that received the bulk of the attention in free agency, as well as the #1 selection in the 2008 draft. Bringing in a couple recognizable names, and one less recognizable name, the Bills bolstered their defense in all the right places.

Let's take a look at the defensive unit the Buffalo Bills will (likely) field in 2008, position by position, starting up front.

DE
One of the main concerns surrounding the Bills defense the past several seasons has been stopping the run. They have not been able to do it, and the unit taking the most blame has been the defensive line. Although the Bills have a Pro Bowl DE in Aaron Schobel, some say he is just a pass rusher, and does not defend well against the run. The stats would show otherwise. Schobel set a single-season career-high in tackles, despite the dip in sacks from his first Pro Bowl season in 2007. There is more to Schobel than just his pass rush.

So with the Pro Bowler Schobel on one end, and Chris Kelsay, Ryan Denney, and 3rd-round draft choice, Chris Ellis, leading the way, Buffalo is hoping they have the pieces they need for an effective pass rush from the outside, but also quickness to the ball against the run.

DT
That will, of course, be helped by the interior defensive linemen. Arguably the biggest move the Bills made in the off-season (pun intended) was to beef up the middle of their defensive line by trading for Marcus Stroud, perennial Pro Bowl lineman from the Jacksonville Jaguars. Stroud is exactly what the Bills were looking for. He's large (6'6", 310 lbs) and he's experienced (8 years in the league) and he's a player that the opposing team must account for. Just adding Stroud to the mix already makes the defensive ends mentioned above that much better, as the offensive line has to account for him.

In addition to the new big man, the Bills pulled off an "under the radar" signing of Specner Johnson from Minnesota. This free agent acquisition has experience stuffing the run, playing next to the Williamses (Pat & Kevin) with the Vikings. Johnson will add depth to an interior line that now features Stroud, promising third-year player John McCargo, and Kyle Williams. The Bills released Larry Tripplett just before the free agency period began, likely knowing they were going to bring in the two defensive tackles.

Some Bills fans will still bemoan the fact that our DL is small, but for the scheme the Bills run, that's what they need. Their defensive scheme is about quickness to the ball, and that is definitely the model of player they have signed and drafted. Still, the addition of Stroud to the team - assuming he can play at the same level he has in his career thus far - will markedly improve the entire Bills defense.

LB
There was a decent amount of turnover at the linebacker position, too, this offseason. The Bills released Coy Wire, and lost Josh Stamer to free agency, and have not yet renewed the contract of free agent Mario Haggan. Mostly those guys contributed on special teams, but they were certainly depth players at LB.

The Bills did bring in a few new faces at linebacker, most prominently Kawika Mitchell (pronounced kuh-WEE-kuh) from the Super Bowl champion New York Giants. Mitchell only played one year in NY, but was a starter there on a good defense and the Bills are hoping Mitchell completes the starting trio here of Mitchell and Angelo Crowell on the outside, with Paul Posluszny in the middle. They also added depth (as well as special teams help) by drafting Alvin Bowen in the 5th round of the draft.

Probably the biggest boost to the Bills defense will be the return of Poz. Posluszny was a force in his very short two-game season as a Bill. He was a tackling machine. Always on the ball. He says he learned a lot this season (he was with the team all year, even though on injured reserve) and is ready to jump back in and contribute on the field. He should bring a big, big lift to the Bills defense, which already will be improved with the addition of Stroud up front.

CB
With the 11th pick of the draft, the Buffalo Bills selected Leodis McKelvin. Many expected the Bills to grab a corner in the first round, and McKelvin was ranked by most as the best at his position in this year's draft, so this pick was no surprise. The Bills are very excited to have him as he is a super-athletic, hard-hitting, naturally gifted player. He will push for the starting spot opposite Terrence McGee, and has the added bonus of being a fantastic kick returner. Look for him to take his fair share of those duties alongside fellow return aces McGee and Roscoe Parrish.

Cornerback was labeled a "position of need" for the Bills heading into the draft, but with the addition of McKelvin, as well as fourth round selection, Reggie Corner (yes, a cornerback named Corner...) the Bills are actually quite full at that spot. Incumbent starter McGee is likely to retain his starting spot, but vying for the opposite starting role are McKelvin, Jabari Greer, veteran free agent Will James, and Ashton Youboty. Youboty has not yet lived up to the starting role the Bills thought he would play, drafting him in the 3rd round in 2006.

S
The Bills were definitely hit hardest on defense last season. Of all the injuries they sustained, it seemed the most damaging were to the defensive unit. Losing Poz early on hurt. A week prior they lost starting LB Coy Wire, and starting FS Ko Simpson. Simpson had a promising rookie season in tandem with fellow rookie Donte Whitner. Bills fans were excited to see that duo back for another bigger and better season in 2007. Simpson, however, was injured for the season in the first game against Denver. Getting him back should provide a big boost to the Bills secondary.

Donte Whitner is the leader of this group, and definitely one of the leaders of the defense and the team as a whole. He's a hard hitter, and a vocal presence on the field. He doesn't have a "nose for the ball" as far as INTs go, but that's where Simpson seems to excel.

Due to injuries last season, wide-receiver-turned-safety George Wilson saw a lot of playing time as a starter, and performed admirably. So much so that when he was lost for the remainder of the season against the Dolphins late in the year, his loss definitely affected the team. Getting so much playing time and experience in 2007 should guarantee Wilson a spot on the roster and give the Bills some solid depth at the safety position. The Bills also really like 2007 draft choice John Wendling - an athletic, heady player who also contributed well on special teams.

DEFENSIVE OVERVIEW
No coaching changes here, just roster regeneration. There was definitely the normal turnover following last season via free agency, roster cuts, and the trade for Stroud, not to mention five players picked up in the draft - including probably starter Leodis McKelvin. But the main thing Bills fans will notice about their teams' defense in 2008 is the addition of some familiar faces. Both Posluszny and Simpson should be a big lift to a defense that, with all the pieces listed above, could potentially be a top ten defense in 2008. (Barring 17 season-ending injuries of course...)



SPECIAL TEAMS
I need to mention this unit here, too, as it will again play a key role in the Bills success this year. From dazzling kick returns by 2007 league leader Roscoe Parrish, and Terrence McGee, and newcomer Leodis McKelvin (who compares himself to Devin Hester), to the great kickers that we have in Brian Moorman and Rian Lindell, to the great kick coverage teams that Bobby April fields every season... special teams will affect the outcome of games.

The unit took a pretty good hit this offseason via free agency and the Bills just trimming their roster. Special teams stars Sam Aiken, Josh Stamer, and Jim Leonhard all went to new teams in the offseason while Mario Haggan, Coy Wire and a few others are not currently on an NFL roster. The Bills filled those holes in the draft in rounds three through five with Chris Ellis, Derek Fine, & Alvin Bowen, all of whom have excelled at special teams at the collegiate level.

Though there were some losses, there were some great gains for this unit as well, and - especially in the return game - it should add some razzle-dazzle to the Bills team in 2008!


BUFFALO BILLS TEAM OVERVIEW
So to conclude, with some decent - and key - improvements on offense and defense, as well as the return of many players from season-ending injuries in 2007, the Bills are poised to make a serious run at the playoffs, and perhaps their division title for the first time since 1995. With a fairly favorable schedule, and all the pieces the staff have put in place, it's certainly a possiblity, and for the first time in quite a while, Bills fans feel it might be more than just wishful thinking.

In 1986, Marv Levy came to a floundering, directionless team and gave it instant respect. There were some pieces in place, but over the next two seasons (and beyond) he crafted it into his team, along with Bill Polian and John Butler. By the 1988 season, this laughable NFL franchise found themselves in the AFC Championship game, after going 12-4 and winning their division.

This Bills team is now entering their third season after Marv came back to town, and moulded the team once more. This team is definitely stamped by Marv Levy. Might this be 1988 all over again? Could enough of the pieces be in place that this year will begin a stellar run of championship after championship?

Might the Bills not only reach, but win a Super Bowl before turning 50? (Which happens in 2010.)

All of these things are far off, but perhaps not as far as some might think. Many experts are alerting NFL fans to watch this young team being assembled in Buffalo. They just might be ready to make some noise.

Only a couple more months till we get to find out.

Bring on the 2008 NFL season!

The Team The Bills Will Field - Part One

I am just a fan. I only know the Bills from a distance, but I love Bills football, and enjoy following every little detail. Even when they really aren't that great, I root for them, and follow them. And I'm pretty certain I always will.

I am also an optimist. I tend to look for the best side of everything in life, and can usually find it. Thus, many of my predictions (and on our show, my "reviews") regarding Buffalo Bills football tend to be a bit, shall we say, "rosy".

I say all of that to preface what I am about to say regarding the 2008 version of the Buffalo Bills. (At least, what I am guessing will be the 2008 version.) Some may simply dismiss the following predictions as the ramblings of a rabid, overly optimistic, homer Bills fan. And that's fine.

But I gotta say, folks... this team really has a lot of the pieces to the puzzle!

Let's go position by position, starting with the offense. Everyone loves offense, and I think we might actually have some this year!

QB
The Bills enter the season with a solid answer for who their starting QB will be. Edwards earned himself the role last season with not only a winning record (5-4) in games he started, along with his general poise on the field, and command of the offense. (What little there was last season!) This is nothing new, however, as entering 2007, JP Losman was firmly entrenched as the starter. The difference this season is the Bills seem confident with Edwards as their signal caller (he is the QB selected by Jauron and his staff) and even better for Edwards, there is a new offensive coordinator, without an overhaul of the offensive system.

With most of a year of playing in the NFL under his belt, as well as a new coordinator - a former NFL QB who has a reputation for wide open offenses - Edwards stands to have a solid-to-great sophomore season, mainly due to some additions to the Bills arsenal. (See below...)

I must also mention the fact that J.P. Losman managed to stick around for at least the last year of his contract. The Bills have said all along that they really like Losman (as a QB) and feel they have two great young quarterbacks on their team. I believe Losman - erratic as he may be - is a great backup option, should Edwards be injured during the season. He knows the offense, is comfortable with the players, and certainly has the physical tools to be a solid NFL QB. It's the mental tools that are in question with Losman.

RB
The centerpiece of the Bills offense has to be Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch. He gained 1,000 yards in a season where he missed three games due to an ankle injury, and would have been much more productive in an offensive scheme that involved him more in the passing game. Assuming that is part of the plan in 2008, Lynch should be poised to be a terror to opposing teams in his second season in the NFL. He's fast, powerful, and never gives up on a play. If he's able to play a full season, he should easily rack up 1,200 yards rushing, or more.

The Bills surprised many by drafting a running back in the later rounds of the 2008 NFL Draft. Xavier Omon, from a small Division II school. At first glance, the pick is perplexing. The Bills did not seem to have a need at RB. But upon further review, this kid was just off-the-charts amazing at his collegiate level! Over 7000 yards rushing, and 98 TDs total (rushing/receiving) in four years of college. He had 37 TDs in his senior season alone! He's small, fast, powerful, and obviously has great running back instincts. It's possible the Bills may have found a Maurice Jones-Drew to their Fred Taylor.

WR
The other "name" player on the Bills offense would be Lee Evans. Evans had a statistically disappointing season in 2007, but most would blame that on the unimaginitive offensive play calling, as well as no real number two receiving threat on the roster. This year, with the key addition of James Hardy, Evans could be much more free to put up the kind of numbers the Bills were expecting to see from him.

Hardy was drafted in the second round, and is the ideal fit for the Bills offense. One major missing piece last year was any sort of red zone threat. They needed - and Jauron said as much this off-season - a big, tall wide receiver. Hardy is anywhere from 6'5" to 6'7" (reports vary) and 220 pounds. He's "a head taller than almost every other player," according to Chris Brown of BuffaloBills.com. He should be a force to reckon with. I predicted when we drafted him that he would get six red zone TDs this season. I think I probably underestimated that number.

Now, with Hardy taking pressure off of Evans - as well as adding much-needed touchdown scoring - there are still some formidable weapons for opponents to cover in the Bills receiving corps. First there is the dependable Josh Reed. We nicknamed him "Mr. First Down" last season, as he caught so many balls that went for first downs - especially on third down plays. He's got good hands, runs good routes, and the Bills love his blocking skills. Josh Reed is an underneath, over-the-middle kind of guy who was forced to be the #2 man the past year or two. Now moved to #3, he should see a bit more success, as well as help move guys off of Evans and Hardy.

Add Roscoe Parrish to this already decent group, and you have some great big-play potential. Parrish has not been used that effectively by the Bills yet, in my opinion. His speed and moves on punt returns could be put to use in a more wide open scheme that gets him the ball on a slant route (or even a screen) where he's already got the jets burning! Parrish should be able to stretch the field for the Bills offense, if the scheme employs his blazing speed as well.

TE
The Bills were expected to address the tight end position in the draft, and did - to an extent. Most fans and experts alike figured on the Bills drafting a big-play receiving tight end. What they got instead was a solid, all-around TE from Kansas, Derek Fine. Fine not only is an "all-around" tight end, he also played on all four special teams units. The Bills lost a lot this off season on special teams, so this was also a big hole to fill. Fine seems to be a "fine" addition at two spots the Bills needed to address this off season.

There are incumbents still hanging around, of course. The erratic Robert Royal is probably the starting TE by default. Remains to be seen if Fine can supplant him. Also, the Bills brought in Atlanta's Courtney Anderson via free agency. Anderson was a backup to Pro Bowl TE Alge Crumpler for the Falcons. 2007 draft pick, Derek Schouman, tops a no-name cast filling out the rest of the TE roster. This is one of the weaker positions for the Bills offense (on paper) going into 2008, barring stellar production from Fine, or perhaps Anderson or Royal.

OL
Lastly, but perhaps most importantly, the Bills offensive line showed marked improvement in 2007, and has remained intact, with a possible addition via the draft. (Although, Demetrius Bell, one of the Bills seventh round choices, is certainly a "project".)

Starting on the left side, Jason Peters had a Pro Bowl season his first full season at left tackle! Can't get much better than that. Peters is respected around the NFL as one of the better LTs in the game. Next to him is Derrick Dockery, who was maligned for being a bit overpaid, but that left side of the line for the Bills not only allowed way fewer sacks in 2007, most of the running plays also went their direction.

On the right side, the Bills still like 2006 draft choice, Brad Butler, and the behemoth at right tackle, Langston Walker. The Bills also re-signed veteran Jason Whittle who spent nearly all of last season on injured reserve. The Bills have some decent depth at the position with Whittle, Duke Preston and Kirk Chambers. Lots more guys on the roster as well, all of whom are enormous!

The one question a lot of Bills fans have with the O-line is center Melvin Fowler. He is definitely smaller than the rest of the line, and seemed to be overpowered fairly easily last season. Some thought that the team would address that position in the draft, but they did not.

OFFENSIVE OVERVIEW
Probably the most anticipated change on the offensive side of the ball is the change at the top. Turk Schonert, who as I mentioned already, is known to like a more wide-open offensive approach, has taken the reins and promised to have an offense that is similar, yet will look totally different. A Bills fan can only hope.

Assuming a more inventive offense, maybe even a four-wide formation on occasion - utilizing Evans, Hardy, Reed & Parrish simultaenously, as well as Lynch out of the backfield - this offense could really be scary to the opposing defensive coordinator. You can no longer double-cover Evans. It might be pretty hard to stop Hardy, if he can compete at the NFL level. Lynch should have more room with a passing game to which defenses are forced to pay more respect...

In the end, this 30th-ranked offense from 2007 should see dramatic improvement in 2008, which is very welcome news to Bills fans. At the very least, there should be many more renditions of the Shout! Song belted out by ecstatic Bills fans whose team should be able to put up six points in the Red Zone much more often than last season.

Fasten your seat belts, Bills fans. It should be an exciting '08!

TO BE CONTINUED...
A look at the defensive side of the Bills roster coming soon...

Thoughts on Hardy

Just wanted to pass along some observations about Bills second-round pick James Hardy from Indiana.

Let me start by saying that I'm a sportswriter here in Indiana and IU football is one of my fall beats. I went to just about every home game the past couple seasons in Bloomington and also went to the Insight Bowl this past season out in Arizona.

So, I've seen Hardy up close a lot. And before he was at IU, a good friend of mine from Fort Wayne, who worked at one of the dailies there, told me about this kid named James Hardy -- who at that time was Fort Wayne's version of LeBron James.

Hardy was a great basketball player before football. In fact, he only took up football in his junior season of high school to help out a cousin of his who was coaching F.W. Elmhurst -- one of the worst football programs in the entire history of high school football. And I'm not kidding.

When I was working in The Fort for two years, I NEVER saw Elmhurst win a single game. I believe at one point they lost something like 60 straight games and set a state record for futility.

Why do you care?

Well, because Hardy made a big difference there. In his senior season, they even won four games -- which was a huge accomplishment. He went down to IU to play both football and basketball, but after a year of hoops he gave it up and concentrated on football -- where he obviously had the best shot of making it to the professional ranks.

In short, Hardy has terrorized the IU receiving record books since the day he stepped onto the field at Memorial Stadium. He might not be the quickest guy off the line. He might not have bulging pipes. But he is easily the tallest guy on the field roaming through the secondary, and QBs can't miss him. He also knows how to shake defenders and has solid hands to go with that vertical leap.

He should be a red zone nightmare for opposing D-coordinators.

He does come with some drawbacks, of course. Who doesn't?

In the past, he's quit on some routes and been bumped off others too easily -- leading to bad INTs. He's not the physically strongest guy on the field, either, not does he have blazing speed like Randy Moss.

He did have one scrape with the law between his freshman and sophomore seasons -- in which he was originally accused of shoving his child's mother while she was supposedly holding the baby.

That's the bad news. The good news is that since that incident, he hasn't had any known run-ins with the law. He did get suspended for a couple of games in deceased former IU coach Terry Hoeppner's final season -- for unspecified reasons. But it was sort of leaked that Hardy's attitude needed an adjustment when it came to getting along with then new QB Kellen Lewis.

They worked it out, and then started dominating defenses.

Put it this way ... Hardy still had a year of eligibility left at IU and was only a couple of TD catches away from setting the all-time Big Ten record for career TD grabs. Former Michgan star Braylon Edwards holds the record and another former Michigan star, Anthony Carter is second.

Both of them needed four seasons to get where they got. Had Hardy returned, he likely would have set the new record so far out there that it might never have been broken again.

And that was all for a fledgling young Big Ten team that just made a bowl game last season for the first time in 13 years!

Hardy's probably not going to stretch the field too much for the Bills in the NFL, but he should be a big factor picking up key first downs and, of course, touchdowns.

Should be fun to watch him ...

Profile Video on Demetrius Bell

Alvin Bowen Video Highlights

James Hardy Video Highlights

Look at all the Red Zone TDs! And long-range as well. This guy looks great.